Two Reasons Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash

You may have heard chatter recently about the economy and talk about a possible recession. It's no surprise that kind of noise gets some people worried about a housing market crash. Maybe you’re one of them. But here’s the good news – there’s no need to panic. The housing market is not set up for a crash right now. Real estate journalist Michele Lerner says: “A housing market crash happens when home values plummet due to a lack of demand for homes or an oversupply.” With that definition in mind, here are two reasons why this just isn’t on the horizon. 1. Demand for Homes Is Higher than Supply One of the biggest reasons the housing market crashed back in 2008 was an oversupply of homes. Today, though, it’s a very different story. It’s a general rule of thumb that a market where supply and demand are balanced has a six-month supply of homes. A higher number means supply outpaces demand, and a lower number means demand outpaces supply. The graph below uses data from NAR to put today’s situation into context: The graph compares housing supply during three different periods of time. The red bar shows there were 13 months of supply before the 2008 crisis, which was far too much. The gray bar shows a balanced market with six months of supply, for context. And the blue bar shows there are only 4.2 months of supply today. Put simply, there are more people who want to buy homes than there are homes available to buy right now. So, demand is greater than supply. When that happens, home prices stay steady or rise – the opposite of a housing market crash. It’s important to note that inventory levels differ from market to market. Some areas may be more balanced, while a few could have a slight oversupply, which can impact prices locally. However, most markets continue to experience a shortage of homes. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.” 2. Unemployment Is Still Low When people are unemployed, they’re more likely to have trouble making their mortgage payments and may be forced to sell or face foreclosure. That was a big problem during the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the employment situation is much more stable (see graph below): Again, this graph shows three different periods of time, but this one is the unemployment rate. The red bar represents the 2008 financial crisis when unemployment was very high at 8.3%. The gray bar shows the 75-year average of 5.7%. And the blue bar shows the unemployment rate today, and it’s much lower at just 4.1%. Right now, people are working, earning an income, and making their mortgage payments. That’s one reason why the wave of foreclosures that happened in 2008 isn’t going to happen again this time. Plus, since so many people are employed right now, many are actually in a position to buy a home, and this demand keeps upward pressure on prices. Today’s Housing Market Is Stronger than in 2008 While it’s understandable to be concerned when you hear talk of a recession and economic uncertainty, but know this: the housing market is in a much better place than it was in 2008. According to Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Company: “Literally everything is different about today’s housing market dynamics than the conditions that led to the housing crisis.” Demand for homes still outpaces supply, and unemployment remains low. And these are two key factors that will help prevent the housing market from crashing any time soon. Bottom Line The housing market is doing a lot better than it was in 2008, but it’s important to remember that real estate is very local. So, it’s always a good idea to stay informed about our specific market. If you have any questions or want to discuss how these factors are playing out in our area, feel free to reach out.

Why Now’s Not the Time To Take Your House Off the Market

Has your house been sitting on the market longer than expected? If so, you’re bound to be frustrated by now. Maybe you’re even thinking it’s time to pull the listing and wait to see what 2025 brings. But what you may not realize is, the decision to hold off could actually cost you. Here’s a look at why staying the course could be the smarter move. Other Sellers Are Pulling Back. Should You Hold Off Too? According to recent data from Altos Research, the number of withdrawals is increasing – that means more sellers are opting to pull their listings off the market right now. And this isn’t unusual for this time of the year. In the housing market, there are seasonal ebbs and flows. Inventory levels typically start to drop off a bit headed into the fall season as some sellers delay their plans until the new year. As Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Research, explains: “. . . we’re seeing a more normal seasonal pattern now with inventory beginning to decline. We’re also seeing more home sellers withdrawing their listings to try again next year. In fact, for every two sales, there is another listing withdrawn from the market.” But is that a smart move? While it might seem like a good idea to pull your listing too, here’s why that approach may not pay off this year. Today’s Buyers Are Serious and Ready To Act The biggest reason to stick with your plan to sell now is that the buyers who are looking at this time of year are serious about making a purchase. They’ve been sitting on the sidelines for a while waiting for affordability to improve. And now that mortgage rates are down from their recent peak, they’re ready to make their move. Mortgage applications are rising – and that’s a leading indicator that buyers are preparing to jump back in. And since they’ve already put their needs on the back burner for so long, they’re even more eager than buyers usually are at this time of year. These aren’t window shoppers. They’re highly motivated buyers who want to move fast – and that’s the kind of buyer you want to work with. As Freddie Mac says: “During the fall months, serious homebuyers are eager to settle in to a new home before the holiday season ramps up and the winter weather begins.” By keeping your home on the market, you increase the chances of attracting people who are truly ready to make a purchase. Bottom Line While some sellers are choosing to take their homes off the market, this really isn’t the best move. With serious buyers eager to purchase, this is a great time to sell your house. Let’s connect to make sure we’ve got a strategy in place to make it happen. 

The Real Story Behind What’s Happening with Home Prices

If you’re wondering what’s going on with home prices lately, you’re definitely not the only one. With so much information out there, it can be hard to figure out your next move. As a buyer, you might be worried about paying more than you should. And if you're thinking of selling, you might be concerned about not getting the price you're aiming for.  So, here's a quick breakdown to help clear things up and show you what’s really happening with prices—whether you're thinking about buying or selling.  Home Price Growth Is Slowing, but Prices Aren’t Falling Nationally Throughout the country, home price appreciation is moderating. What that means is, prices are still going up, but they're not rising as quickly as they were in recent years. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to make the shift from 2023 to 2024 clear: But rest assured, this doesn't mean home prices are falling. In fact, all the bars in this graph show price growth. So, while you might hear talk of prices cooling, what that really means is they're not climbing as fast as they were when they skyrocketed just a few years ago. What’s Next for Home Prices? It’s All About Supply and Demand  You might be curious where prices will go from here. The answer depends on supply and demand, and it’s going to vary by local market. Nationally, the number of homes for sale is going up, but there still aren’t enough of them to meet today’s buyer demand. That’s keeping upward pressure on prices – even though recent inventory growth has caused that home price appreciation to slow. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, said: “. . . today’s low but quickly improving for-sale inventory has ushered in more market balance than would otherwise be expected . . . This should help home prices maintain a slower pace of growth.”  And here’s one other thing you may not have considered that could play a role in where prices go from here. Since experts say mortgage rates should continue to decline, it’s likely more buyers will re-enter the market in the months ahead. If demand picks back up, that could make prices climb a bit further. Why You Should Work with a Local Real Estate Agent  While national trends give a big-picture view, real estate is always local – especially when it comes to prices. What's happening in your neighborhood might be different from the national average based on what supply and demand look like in your market. That’s why it's crucial to get local insights from a knowledgeable real estate agent.  As your go-to source for everything related to home prices, a local agent can provide the most current data and trends specific to your area. So, if you’re planning to sell, they can help you price your house accurately. And when you’re ready to buy, they can find the right home that fits your budget and your needs. Bottom Line Home prices are still rising, just not as quickly as before. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just curious about what your house is worth, let’s connect so you have the personalized guidance you need.